Assessing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam's (GERD) flow requirements, spill risks, and regional effects (KEY IJP************370)

• Amr Hassan

Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, is situated on the Blue Nile and is designed to generate 6,000 MW of electricity. However, its operation requires complex flow management, as it requires substantial water flow to meet its energy targets. Effective flow control is crucial for optimizing energy production, balancing reservoir levels, and ensuring consistent downstream releases to Sudan and Egypt. Spillage, a necessary process during high inflow periods, may reduce available water for power generation, limiting turbine output. This paper examines GERD's flow requirements for power generation and discusses the implications of flow regulation for sustainable water sharing and regional cooperation within the Nile Basin. It uses an integrated approach combining hydrologic modeling and observational data to explore whether higher regulated flows could address these risks and foster regional cooperation. References to foundational studies in Nile Basin hydrology, climate variability, and the GRACE satellite system enhance the analysis.